Finance Ministry predicts 4% Q4 growth revival

       Economic growth is expected to rise to at least 4% year-on-year by the fourth quarter, said Ekniti Nitithanprapat, a spokesman for the Finance Ministry.
       The economy is still projected to contract in the third quarter, with the ministry forecasting a 4% year-on-year decline.
       But Dr Ekniti said there were clear signs that the economy had turned the corner, whether it be in terms of exports,tax revenues or manufacturing activity.
       The economy contracted 7.1% yearon-year for the first quarter and 4.9%year-on-year in the second. The Fiscal Policy Office, a unit of the Finance Ministry, in June projected a contraction of 2.5-3.5% for 2009.
       Dr Ekniti acknowledged that low-base effects is one factor for the sharp jump in year-on-year growth projected for the fourth quarter.
       A sustainable economic recovery meanwhile would depend largely on domestic political stability, he added.
       The fourth quarter of 2008 represented the worst of the global crisis, marked by the collapse of Lehman Brothers, AIG and other financial institutions. But massive stimulus measures by governments restarted global economic growth.
       The Fiscal Policy Office plans to release updated economic forecasts on Monday,with its full-year projections likely to be upgraded in light of the improvements in the global and domestic economy.
       Dr Ekniti noted that value-added tax revenue, a proxy for domestic consumption, had rebounded to 36-37 billion baht per month compared with 31-32 billion earlier this year.
       Auto sales have also shown improvement, while unemployment has dropped from 800,000 in the first quarter to only 500,000, or 1.2% of the labour force.
       Dr Ekniti said in addition to political stability, other risk factors for the econ-omy included crude oil price trends and the efficiency of the government in managing budget disbursements and implementation of the Thai Khem Kaeng stimulus programme.
       He said the first stimulus programme,a 116-billion-baht package approved in March, has seen disbursements of just 80% to date, with unreleased funds primarily coming from construction projects such as a programme to build new housing flats for the police force.